The possible (and impossible) in and outs of the January transfer window

The possible (and impossible) in and outs of the January transfer window by Ix Techau

With a shoddy start to the season, and some unfortunate injuries, Wenger is facing one of the more interesting January windows in recent history. Arsenal are in such obvious need of full backs that the prices will skyrocket in that area, but Wenger is playing it cool as usual, claiming his normal “if we find quality we’ll buy” mantra to mask what’s really going on behind the scenes.

Tabloid media is in full spin, throwing names around in a desperate chase for readers and clicks on their sites, hoping that one claim proves to be true so that they have a morsel of integrity left on February 1st. But what do we actually need to do in January, and who are all these players rumoured to be on their way to The Emirates? Let’s find out.

What positions should Wenger be looking at?

The most obvious area that needs reinforcement is full back, at least on a temporary basis – we wouldn’t want to tie ourselves up with too many options once our first choice players are back. A couple of loans until the end of the season is probably the best option, as Bacary Sagna and Kieran Gibbs are expected to return in January, but Carl Jenkinson and André Santos are out for months to come.

The second most important position to strengthen is a central forward to ease the pressure off of Robin van Persie, and to provide healthy competition for Marouane Chamakh to get back on track. Ju-Young Park is showing promise, but needs at least another 3-4 months to get settled in London and get used to Wenger’s system.

Outside of those areas, there’s no real need for us to look into any serious options. Our central defenders are doing quite well, and seem sturdy in terms of injuries this year (knock on wood). We have Jack Wilshere coming back into central midfield soon, which will relieve pressure from Arteta, and on the wings we have adequate cover in Benayoun, Arshavin, Oxlade-Chamberlain and even Rosicky in the worst injury crisis.

In my opinion, two signings is the bare minimum – one full back and a central forward. The full back can be a loan signing, but it’s essential we get natural full backs into our defensive line as soon as possible, so we don’t have to rely on putting central defenders into awkward positions.

Strikers & Forwards

Thierry Henry Forward | Red Bulls | Free (loan)
The prospect of seeing Henry lead the line in an Arsenal 125th anniversary shirt is frankly mouth-watering, but part of me is deathly afraid of what such a comeback would do to his legacy. Nothing should be able to take away anything from his legendary impact on the club, but he is nowhere near the player he was when he left us, and the player himself might not want to risk his reputation.

Marco Reus

The move isn’t impossible, it’s not even improbable. In fact, it makes sense on some level – Henry has been training with the first team at Colney recently, and I’m sure he’d love to play at least one more game for the club of his heart. But it’s quite a risky move that could have a very negative impact on the club with all the expectations involved.

As long as the supporters are clear with Henry’s role being a backup option to Van Persie, Chamakh and Park, we should be fine. Henry was the second highest goal scorer in the 2011 MLS season, so he still obviously knows where the goal is. The question is; what happens if injury strikes? Can we find ourselves in a situation where Thierry Henry is leading the attack from the middle?

Lukas Podolski Forward | Koln | £10-15m
The Polish-born 26-year old striker has been heavily linked to Arsenal in the last couple of weeks, and with good reason. His contract expires in 2013, and the player is showing no sign of wanting to extend it. With 14 goals and 4 assists in 15 Bundesliga starts, he seems to be a perfect option for Van Persie at first glance.

However, Podolski has only ever excelled at FC Koln, unable to evolve and further his career when Bayern Munich bought him in 2006. In fact, he was even moved to Bayern’s second team for the 2007-2008 season, as Luca Toni moved ahead of him in the pecking order. Podolski is a risk, and might be too expensive with 18 months left on his contract. If Wenger is interested, he’ll probably wait until July to make enquiries.

Edinson Cavani Striker | Napoli | £20-30m
Although Ian Wright banged on about Edinson Cavani in The Sun a couple of days ago – claiming the Uruguayan should pair up with Van Persie in a 4-4-2 – it’s very unlikely that Napoli would sell their star striker just as they’re about to enter the Champions League knockout stages. It’s also quite unimaginable to think Napoli would sell him for anything less than £25m, especially since his contract extends all the way to 2016.

Marco Reus Forward | Monchengladbach | £15m+
Probably one of the more realistic signings in terms of the transfer fee, but Reus is the highest rated player in the German league (the only player in Bundesliga above an 8.0 rating over at WhoScored¹), and is scouted by any club able to pay transfer fees in the £15m segment. At 22, he’s a very exciting prospect, many claim even more so than the more hyped names of Gotze or Hazard.

He is able to play on the flanks, but is more comfortable as a central forward where he’s scored 8 goals and made 1 assist in 8 appearances so far. If we take his appearances on the right wing into account, his total tally this season is 10 goals in 15 starts.

Reus reportedly has an €18m (£15m) buyout clause in his contract that is triggered in July 2012, so even if the Germans don’t want to sell him in January, we might have a good chance of snapping him up in the post-season. The only option if we want him in January would be to offer Monchengladbach more money than his buyout clause, which would mean we’d have to break our transfer record to get him.

Midfielders & Wingers

Yoann Gourcuff Midfielder | Lyon | £10-20m
Frequently being hailed as the new Zidane, Gourcuff is an attacking midfielder who prefers the same type of position as Fabregas did in his last year at Arsenal – advanced central midfield with license to roam around the pitch. A typical ‘false 10′, Gourcuff would pull the strings and distribute passes to the forwards in front of him.

Esteban Granero

For some reason he’s fallen out of favour at Lyon, even though Lyon is playing a very similar 4-2-3-1 to what Arsenal used last season – a formation that should theoretically suit Gourcuff perfectly. He’s been quoted saying that he’s disappointed in himself, and it’s not about Puel (Lyon’s then manager) or the tactical system.

With Wilshere, Diaby, Ramsey, Arteta and Rosicky, we’re already fairly covered in central midfield when it comes to this year’s 4-1-2-3/4-3-3 formation. But an interesting observation is that if Wenger decides to go back to the more penetrating 4-2-3-1 we used last year, we only have Ramsey as the natural option in the ‘Cesc role’ behind our central forward.

Gourcuff might be a good option as Rosicky gets older and Benayoun goes back to Chelsea in June, but as a January signing it’s unlikely. If Gourcuff is still struggling at the end of the season, the transfer becomes much more realistic.

Mario Gotze Winger | Dortmund | £30-40m
Arsenal showed genuine interest in Gotze this summer, but the high price tag meant we couldn’t even afford half of the promising winger. With some very impressive performances in the first half of this season, his value has now increased even further. Even though Dortmund claims he’s worth £50m, in reality they’ll probably accept closer to £30m – still highly unrealistic from our perspective.

Gotze is used primarily as a right winger, but is more comfortable in the middle or on the left. Although Wenger is surely tempted to have another option to rotate between Walcott, Gervinho and Arshavin, the fact of the matter is that Arsenal doesn’t have the correct financial structure to buy a £30m+ player. And the better Gotze gets, the more expensive he’ll become. With recent signings Oxlade-Chamberlain and Miyaichi ready to prove their worth, Wenger might avoid signing wing players altogether.

Eden Hazard Winger | Lille | £30-£35m
Same deal goes for the Belgian wonderkid Hazard, who will be included in all Arsenal transfer rumours until the end of time…or until one of the Spanish giants pick him up in the summer. It’s the same situation here; Wenger wouldn’t have the money to spend for this transfer bracket, and even if he did, the wage demands involved would be way above our current salary caps.

Esteban Granero Midfielder | Real Madrid | £5-10m (or loan)
Normally used as a utility player ranging from central midfielder to winger, Granero is like a Gattuso-type ball-chaser with technical ability, making life very difficult for his opponents. Like a 5’11 Arshavin in his prime, with Frimpong’s tenacious personality. He is able to play in the Wilshere/Arteta and Song role, but he is also fully capable playing as a winger, or even a full back, so he might be a very sensible buy or loan.

One question mark is the price. Real Madrid can’t claim he’s worth more than £5-10m, otherwise they would have played him. An option would be to loan him from Real Madrid, something I’m convinced Wenger is more open to nowadays after seeing how well Benayoun has fitted into his plans. We don’t really need another central midfielder right now, but Granero is a perfect fit for Arsenal.

Defenders & Full Backs

Andreas Beck Right Back | Hoffenheim | £5-10m
Another German player linked to Arsenal is 24-year old Beck, who is having a mediocre season at Hoffenheim this year. But Beck is a seasoned player, with 34 youth caps and 9 senior caps for Germany, including being right back in the 2009 U21 European Championship final against England, winning the trophy in a 4-0 annihilation of an English side featuring players like Kieran Gibbs, Theo Walcott, Jack Rodwell, Adam Johnson, James Milner, Micah Richards and Mark Noble.

Andreas Beck

Apparently, Arsenal have been keeping tabs on Beck for a while, and might feel now is the perfect time to convince Hoffenheim they’d be better off without him. Unfortunately that’s probably true, as Beck isn’t impressing anyone this year.

Wayne Bridge Left Back | Manchester City | Free (loan)
Another loan option that isn’t too far-fetched from a financial perspective, but lacks all common sense from a playing perspective. Wayne Bridge currently spends most of his days on the golf course according to Roberto Mancini, and isn’t even registered in Man City’s Premier League squad. He made one start last season, and is so far off the radar John Terry isn’t even trying to steal his girlfriends anymore.

Taye Taiwo Left Back | AC Milan | £4-7m
Taiwo ticks all of Wenger’s preferred checkboxes – brink of reserves, very talented, quick feet and a very good passer. And with Nigeria failing to qualify for the 2012 Africa Cup Of Nations, Wenger won’t miss him in Jan/Feb either. Probably available for a fairly low transfer fee as well, and AC Milan would probably want to get some cash into the club if they’re seriously going after Carlos Tevez.

Leighton Baines Left Back | Everton | £10m+
Although this would be an excellent signing for us, it’s doubtful Everton would want to sell one of the highest rated full backs in the Premier League. Baines is constantly feeding crosses, key passes and long balls to the front line, with numbers more similar to a winger than a full back. Baines would be an excellent addition to our defensive line, which is probably why it will never happen, unfortunately.

What about the outgoing players?

Lots of speculation surrounding Van Persie and Real Madrid, which, to be fair, isn’t really unrealistic. The player is in the prime of his career, and would generate a hefty offer from any of the rich clubs like Real, Barca or Man City. But just like in the case of Cavani, Arsenal wouldn’t sell Van Persie in January, unless the offer was substantially mind-blowing.

It’s a different story with Arshavin. Our little Russian has plummeted in form, struggling even to dribble past Fulham players on his best day, and every action seems sluggish. Wenger’s loyalty to his players is widely known, but even Wenger must see how much Arshavin is struggling to emulate his initial impact at the club. Russian clubs are interested, and if we can get around £10m for him and re-invest immediately, I’d say that’s a good deal.

When it comes to Marouane Chamakh, it’s not as cut-and-dry as with Arshavin. Although Chamakh is also heavily struggling for form and confidence, Wenger seems to be on a mission to prove everyone wrong about the Moroccan, desperate to show the world that £0 can get you world-class players. If Wenger buys a striker, he might want to send Chamakh out on loan so he can regain his form without the pressure of having to live up to the standards set by Van Persie, who is probably the most in-form central forward in the world at this very moment.

What do you think?

It would be safe to assume that at least one signing will be made in January, and that it would probably be a defensive player of some kind, able to play as full back. The injury crisis in defence is too big to ignore, and we can’t keep playing our central defenders out wide. What’s your opinion, who would you like to see Wenger buy in January, realistically?

This entry was posted in Transfers and tagged Transfer Window. Bookmark the permalink.

http://twitter.com/athlon29 Attila Takos

Wenger is right to stick to Gibbs and Santos on long term therefore we would sign a full-back only on loan. Taiwo is an interesting thing, he would regain his form at us and some weeks later we’d meet each other in the ECL? No, thanks. Henry will arrive on loan as Wenger wants to offload Chamakh before signing Podolski or other massive targets. I like the Mkhitaryan-news more than any Götze or Hazard rumours. Why? Because he is an unknown player with good attitude and with a lot of potential, he could be a Koscielny to the midfield. He would be a typcial Wenger-signing and his favourite club is Arsenal. I hope that these news will be stronger in the future.
Iboro

I really don’t buy this adjustment period for Park Ix. When was the last time it took a seasoned player 5 months to adjust? I am concerned that wenger just doesn’t think he is good enough.
http://www.arsenalreport.com Ix Techau

Different players, different adjustment period. Park is not used to anything at Arsenal really – culture, location, tactical system, etc. You might be right though, maybe he’s not good enough…only time will tell. If he’s still not involved in first team action at the start of next season, the purchase was definitely a flop. Hopefully it wasn’t just a PR ploy for the Asian market.
batman

Marco Reus will be worth every penny. Excellent in the wings as well as in centre forward position,he will adapt to our system quickly. Plus I have heard he is an arsenal fan. Hoping we are interested.
http://twitter.com/GiantGooner GiantGooner

Ix - I’m surprised you are so willing to categorically rule out 30m+ transfer fees. With 50m in the kitty and more coming in sales this summer, plus a profit from football operations likely and the last of the Highbury property money coming in, I would think we have the capacity to purchase a player (only one, obviously) in the 30m+ range – and this is assuming we keep both Van Persie and Walcott.

Think of the players you might classify as “assets held for sale” if you wanted to use accounting lingo. Valued fairly conservatively:
Bendtner 7m (a 22 year old center striker who is good enough to start at this age for a mid-table club like Sunderland is easily worth 7. Arsenal was a seller at 10m last summer with no takers; I would think a 30% discount is a sufficiently conservative value)
Arshavin 3m (he is a dynamic player when he wants to be and has additional value to Gazprom-backed Zenit due to his connection to the club. Recent tabloid reports suggest Zenit is going to offer the 12.5m they got when he was sold; I don’t believe this for a second but I can’t see him going for less than 3)
Djourou 2m (JD is clearly out the door this summer – he is the 4th choice centerback and his contract expires at the end of next season. Why would a talented player, one who we thought was a Champions League caliber centerback not 10 months ago (if you’ve repressed any memories of last spring due to trauma, recall the defense collapsed when JD got hurt and had to be replaced by Squillaci) agree to re-sign with Vermaelen, Koscielny and Mertesacker in front of him in the rotation? Kyle Bartley and Ignasi Miquel are ready to step up to fill this roster spot anyways.

Thats 12m at conservative valuations. If you wanted to be more aggressive, use 9m for Nick B, 8m for Shava and 5m for Djorou and you could get to 22m coming in. For whatever its worth, Transfermarkt values the 3 players at 6.2, 15 (!!) and 7m respectively, so my sum total values are quite conservative.

Of course, this will more likely come into play in next summer’s window. I’m rather more skeptical about this January window. I agree a LB has to come in – Gibbs cannot be relied on to remain fit and we have to assume Arsene has realized this. As for a striker though, I question which world-class striker is going to be eager to take a January move to come to Arsenal and be buried behind Van Persie in the depth chart. The player I’ve been most focused on is Seydou Doumbia – he clearly wants to move to the PL and he might be willing to take a year or two’s apprenticeship behind Van Persie in order to get the Big Club move he wants. Plus the Russian teams are generally more willing to sell in January because this is their close season. The problem is that CSKA made the CL knockout stages (though they will inevitably get smoked by Real Madrid and they presumably realize this) and that Doumbia is off to the ACN with Ivory Coast same as Gervinho. A combo of Doumbia and Henry would do a nice job of covering our 2nd striker issues though.

My dream Jan window: In: Henry, Doumbia, a LB (Beck? Bedimo from Montpellier? Anybody with a pulse really?). Out: Arshavin for big $$ to Zenit, Frimpong on a PL loan
My realistic Jan window: In: Henry, a LB I’ve never heard of who barely has a pulse. Out: Just the Frimpong loan.
Bog Szy

I think that we loan Thierry and LB (propably Bridge) and its all. Maybe Arshavin return to Zenit so we should buy winger (Shaqiri, Hazard).
Phoenyx

I think we urgently need some of the players you mention in your article: Reus, Götze, Hazard, Cavani and Baines. With such a squad, we could be competitive in every single league! But I dream, because Wenger doesn’t seem to be inclined to buy a striker except for a short-term contract.
Yet, Arshavin, Rosicky and Squillaci must leave. They are too old and their performances are disappointing or even awful (Arshavin). We must rejuvenate our squad if we want to have a chance to win something in the future.
Zes

Why would Park need ANOTHER 3-4 months to settle?? He’s played in Europe before, he’s at a prime age, and he’s only here for another year and a half. If he isn’t ready now, he’ll never be.
http://www.arsenalreport.com Ix Techau

Think about the following:

1. Arsenal have never paid more than £15m for any player in the 125 year history of the club.

2. Our current wage cap (around £110-120k/week) restricts our options, and transfers worth £25m+ usually come with wage demands in the £130-150k+ range.

3. Wenger prides himself on finding cheap talent.

Transfers above £20-25m aren’t going to happen unless we re-structure our financial setup at the club and completely change our transfer philosophy. It doesn’t matter if we have £50m in the bank, we still have wage caps, and our transfer budget includes first year wages, sign-on fees, agent fees, etc etc.

A £30m transfer translates into a real cost of around £40-45m.

It’s the same thing every single year – some supporters dream of that £25-30m signing that never happens. I also wish Arsenal were in a stronger position on the market so that we could have gotten players like Juan Mata for example….but in the real world it doesn’t work like that.

Just increasing the wage cap isn’t a viable solution either – our highest paid players will push for an improved contract, which means we’d have to massively increase our overall wage budget to accomodate all the players that wants to be promoted through the new wage structure.
http://www.arsenalreport.com Ix Techau

If he becomes an established first team player, he’ll be able to avoid military service.
Gunner

Rosicky has been an asset this season. He has gladly accepted his fate as a fringe player. And as long as Wenger does not include him in the first team plans, he is a useful impact player that we should keep at Arsenal.
Zes

Also, I read today that Aly Cissokho may be available from Lyon for 8m euros. Does this sound like a plausible option? I know a long-term solution is unlikely, but he seems quite a good player.
Jracy12

I think that we definitely need to get rid of the deadweight in the club. By that I mean selling arshavin, chamack (can’t spell his name) and squilaci. Then, we must bring in a few players with alot of class. Pearsonally, I believe that Reus and gotze would help us alot as we truly dont have a centre attacking midfielder with the departure of cesc and nasri. furthermore, we need someone else who can score goals. Reus and gotze would again fill this roll but I believe that a top striker is well worth the investment. Names like cavani, pato, and benzema come to mind. But I don’t think that alwe could realistically land them. Realistically, a player like luke de Jong would be great for the club. With that, I just hope that arse spends some money. We have a huge amount to spend and we just need to spend it.
http://www.arsenalreport.com Ix Techau

That sounds more like a realistic Arsenal signing. But as you say, it’s unlikely Wenger would get a permanent solution to our full back problems. On the other hand, Kieran Gibbs is so fragile that Wenger might have to.
Gunner

If we do want to sign Podolski then why wait for the Summer transfer window. I don’t feel concerned about his time at Bayern. Podolski is a capable player and Wenger himself is capable of bringing the best out of his players (he does that with mediocre players, imagine what he could do with Podolski).