Olivier Giroud is better than Diego Costa, statistically

Always liked Giroud. His development over the least two season is quite impressive.

He's improved, but he's still the completely wrong player we need up front for big matches, especially playing away from home.

We should have other options but at least Wenger starting Welbeck, who is much more beneficial in the big games, at OT was a step in the right direction.

As much as I despise Costa, he's still better. Statistically, Giroud is the second best striker in the PL.

As much as I despise Costa, he's still better. Statistically the second best striker in the PL.

Depends what you base 'best' on. More goals in total, sure...but as the OP shows, Giroud is better per-start in most of the key metrics that makes a striker useful.

Giroud scores as many goals per minute and starts, has more assists, wins more aerial duels (important for lone striker systems), wins twice as many tackles in the offensive third, makes more interceptions to win the ball back, doesn't make as many bad controls, gets dispossessed half as much, and makes infinitely more through balls.

So it's a bit of a stretch saying Costa is better. He has more goals. That's about it.

Higher shot accuracy when both score the same amount of goals per minute is not a good thing.

You look at a player with everything he brings to the team. Giroud > Costa. That dirty 40 year old cunt can do one.

Higher shot accuracy when both score the same amount of goals per minute is not a good thing.

Care to explain?

Care to explain?

Probably means he's hitting the keeper more rather than trying to place his shots?

Probably means he's hitting the keeper more rather than trying to place his shots?

Surely better than getting it in the stands.

Wait... why am I defending the cunt with the off-putting face?

Surely better than getting it in the stands.

That's what I thought, maybe Ix can elaborate

Care to explain?

Ok so both score the same amount of goals per minute played. Diego Costa has a higher shot accuracy - hitting the target more often with his shot attempts - which means that he a) misses more clear chances, and/or b) doesn't convert shots on target as well as Giroud.

Example: Arsenal play Chelsea. Giroud and Costa both have 10 shot attempts. Costa hits the target seven times, Giroud hits the target five times. Both score one goal each.

Conclusion: Giroud's shots-on-target conversion is 20%, Costa's is 14.28%. Shots on target is the only true measure of goal chances (as off target can be basically anything), and although Costa has more of them, his conversion is much lower.

That's why more shots on target isn't a good thing in comparison to a striker with the same goal rate.

Surely better than getting it in the stands.

But not really, statistically. If it doesn't convert to a goal, it doesn't matter where the ball ends up. Also keep in mind that off target shots are more likely to lead to corners than on target shots, which, in turn, results in a second chance at goal from set-piece.

It might look better if a striker constantly gets shots at goal, but statistically it's actually marginally better to have shots off target if comparing two players with the same goals-per-minute rate.

off target shots are more likely to lead to corners than on target shots...

How though? Surely if you're getting your shots on target, you're more likely to get a corner since the keeper will be forced to make a save.

How though? Surely if you're getting your shots on target, you're more likely to get a corner since the keeper will be forced to make a save.

I can't remember the reasoning exactly, but it's been statistically proven. I would assume that a goalkeeper has a higher chance of catching the ball if it's on target, than a defender has clearing it if it's off target. Can't remember exactly, was some Opta article.

If anyone here believes Costa is 26...

I can't remember the reasoning exactly, but it's been statistically proven. I would assume that a goalkeeper has a higher chance of catching the ball if it's on target, than a defender has clearing it if it's off target. Can't remember exactly, was some Opta article.

This whole argument reminds me of Moneyball.