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Red MemberArsenal membership level
Marc OvermarsFavourite all-time player
1993Started supporting Arsenal
Favourite Wenger XI
Wenger goes to Barca, wins champions league. Chaos ensues
Barca lost their mojo years ago, they're not winning the CL anytime soon. They got lucky against Juventus.
Hilarious that anyone actually predicted anything other than a Bayern win.
Have a bad feeling about this.
There's that pub down the street from ye olde Highbury. I was there watching Man Utd v Arsenal when Keown flipped the fuck out. Good times.
Until your account gets taken over and becomes unusable
Correction: until I decide that's enough shit posting only to get karma, and I suspend your account.
I know, but I was in no mood to calculate 17/20
The point was that 80+ points is not the only factor required to win the title. It's just one of a few important factors.
I think better squad is what we want.
The premise of the article is that the squad is irrelevant, and that even with Ozil, Sanchez and Cech we're at the same average as with Denilson, Chamakh and Fabianski. The average doesn't really change. The only constant is Wenger. The squad has changed in quantity and quality over the years, but average league points haven't. The only possible reason for this is that Wenger isn't capable enough to do what SAF did and have an 80+ point average.
I consider the season from which we signed Ozil as the season with complete squad.
And since we signed Ozil we have dropped four points every season.
I don't completely understand this data: the absolute minimum needed to win it on goal difference (not the point tally that actually won it). So if possible please elaborate on this
Those are the points at which a team mathematically won the title in that season. But final points tally outweighs winning points because a season doesn't end when someone is mathematically declared winner. No winner has ended on less than 80 points in a season since the late 90s. The league has been won on fewer points, but again...the season doesn't end when someone wins the title. Often the winners have to play against teams that are still battling for position, so the competition continues elsewhere in the table.
You can blame Wenger for not recruiting right players but can't write him off with 80% chance that even with good players he will not win a league.
It's not really 80% though, as reaching 80+ points is not the only requirement to win the title. It's just the minimum requirement. Also, we can't talk about in terms of chance...it has very little to do with randomness. It's not like a lottery with a 20% chance of winning. You control your own destiny in this league.
Mourinho, Pep are struggling with their super-star squads.
They have completely different problems than we have, it's not even comparable. Mourinho is struggling because a) he has lost his mojo siege mentality attitude schtick, and b) his players have lost confidence in his ability after losing said mojo. In the mid-noughties he was unstoppable so could get away with anything. He also has other issues with the squad, which has been deconstructed too many times in too short a time. Man Utd's squad has too many players signed for different reasons.
Guardiola's problem is that for the first time in his career he's in charge of a team that isn't filled to the brim with world beaters, which is the only type of team he is capable of finding success with. Man City have a strong squad but it's not exactly Heynckes' Bayern, nor full of players like Messi, Xavi, Iniesta or Puyol in their prime. Guardiola is used to two-horse races as well, something the Premier League is most certainly not.
Didn't like any of the choices! I don't want to keep Wenger, but don't want any of the other choices either. Van Gaal? Fraud. Mourinho? Ten years past his prime. Guardiola? Fraud. Conte? Why would Chelsea ever let him go?
We want the league, which is a relative thing. You just can't keep looking Wenger's performance in-silo.
Of course I can, that's how statistics work. Read the article above and it explains why reaching 80 points is essential to winning the league. You're only influencing challengers a handful of times during the season, rest of the time is spent in isolation from challengers.
80 is a good benchmark that you choose.
It's not something I chose or came up with, it's the points needed to win the title, historically. Every single winner since 98-99 have ended on at least 80 points. Wenger has dropped four points per season since 2014 and is now realistically hovering around the 70-point barrier.
Last time we had 67 points we were in CL final! So I would take that :D
Champions League is a different thing. Wenger could potentially win the Champions League because of the luck factor involved in knock-out competitions...but it's highly unlikely. We have to beat teams like Bayern, Barca or Real Madrid over two legs, which we simply don't have the quality to do.
So I say he is not really consistent but actually is improving with big buys and he is one/two seasons away from the title
But that's not true. We've spent £106m net in the last six full seasons, and in that period we've had 72.6 points on average per season. In the six years before that we had negative net spend (we were £18.3m in the black) and had a 74.6 point average. You'll find similar numbers no matter how you calculate. Spending or making money has no impact on Wenger's average.
In fact, since we stopped having self-inflicted financial issues and started buying world-class players (starting with Ozil), we have actually dropped four points every season.
- Ozil joined 2013-2014: 79 points
- Sanchez joined 2014-2015: 75 points
- Cech joined 2015-2016: 71 points
- Mustafi joined 2016-2017: ...67 points?