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Ix Techau Evil Mastermind 14,276 pts

Arsenal can sign three non-homegrown non-U21 players in January

Posted by Ix Techau almost 5 years ago · 17 replies

Let's play fantasy transfer window: you're allowed one striker, one defensive midfielder and one wild card. Budget is £50m. Which three players do you bring in? If I was being sensible:

  • Gonzalo Higuain, £30m
  • Victor Wanyama, £10m
  • Pedro, bid £10m and see what happens

Higuain has proved himself to be adaptable and clinical, and we obviously were interested at some stage before Wenger went all-out for Suarez and Higuain pissed off to Italy. Wanyama is signed as a squad rotation DM, and Pedro is my wild card, rescued from Chelsea (he's their highest rated player of the season so far, and we desperately need a left-wing backup).

Although there is another, slightly more controversial, option:

  • Eden Hazard, £50m

With Chelsea in chaos and their best player both underperforming and openly criticising the playing style, maybe there is a heist opportunity for Hazard. He is clearly struggling with expressing himself in a rigid system, but at Arsenal he would have all the creative freedom he wants, in a harmonic dressing room.

What is your fantasy January?

17 Comments

athlon 45 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by athlon

Here are my options:

Nolito, £16m. Great player and he's in the peak age, he'd be an excellent Monreal type of signing, and wouldn't kill of the prospects of the youngsters (Iwobi, Rene, etc.)

James McCarthy, £24m. I like the player and what he does for Everton if he is not injured. A fantastic midfielder, provides great stability for the team, Everton always struggle without him on the pitch. He was linked with us some years ago, he would be a great addition to the team. Alternatively I'd mention N'Golo Kanté's name. Although everyone is talking about Mahrez and Vardy, the French defensive midfielder's work shouldn't be underestimated in his first season in England. Would be available for £8-12m.

And finally Michy Batshuayi from Marseille for around £10m. It's very hard to get a good no:9 nowadays, but we certainly must watch the market as Giroud gets older. At the age of 22, he is still a bit raw, but would be an ideal Arsenal-signing. I believe he has more potential to become a great CF than Danny...

poodris 2,818 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by poodris

Wanya ma will not be sold in January for 10 million.

30 mil for higuain is c also completly unrealistic...

Morleys Mesut Özil > You and your mum, chief 4,431 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by Morleys
  • Elneny £7.4m (No idea who he is but it's happening)
  • Nolito £14m (buyout clause)
  • Willie C ~£30m

Then once we win the League and get bare money again sign Hazard

JonWill 132 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by JonWill

Striker: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang - Valued at £25m. Will probably need £30m-£40m.

Defensive Midfielder: Sergi Samper - Valued at £3.7m. So a £5m purchase.

Wildcard: Riyad Mahrez - Valued at £8.1m. Probably around £15-£20m given that Leicester will not want to sell him now.

Values courtesy of Transfermarkt.

Ix Techau Evil Mastermind 14,276 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by Ix Techau

Wildcard: Riyad Mahrez - Valued at £8.1m. Probably around £15-£20m given that Leicester will not want to sell him now.

Values courtesy of Transfermarkt.

Proves how off Transfermarkt is about everything, what an awful site that is. They have valued a 24-year old winger who is currently the highest rated player in the Premier League and the primary reason to Leicester's success...at £8.1m. Lol. If they were selling him today they would laugh at any number below £30m, as they should.

poodris 2,818 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by poodris

i must say, 30mil for higuain is 10000000% more likely than 30mil for mahrez, let alone 8.1m

JonWill 132 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by JonWill

Proves how off Transfermarkt is about everything, what an awful site that is. They have valued a 24-year old winger who is currently the highest rated player in the Premier League and the primary reason to Leicester's success...at £8.1m. Lol. If they were selling him today they would laugh at any number below £30m, as they should.

Eh, it was the only value I could find, and hasn't been updated in 3 months, but yes, it is ridiculously low. Reports have him at ~£25m I think, which is as you said, laughably not enough for one of the best players in England at the moment.

Ix Techau Evil Mastermind 14,276 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by Ix Techau

Eh, it was the only value I could find, and hasn't been updated in 3 months, but yes, it is ridiculously low. Reports have him at ~£25m I think, which is as you said, laughably not enough for one of the best players in England at the moment.

Wasn't having a go at you, just having my weekly general rant about Transfermarkt.

Ix Techau Evil Mastermind 14,276 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by Ix Techau

Dont think Transfermarkt is doing it wrong. They cant jump up/down prices on players from media attention or purple patches.

Why not? The value of a player is exclusively based on his performances, not his transfer fee nor his salary - two numbers that Transfermarkt are purely guessing on anyway. The only way to somewhat accurately calculate transfer value is to base it on statistical consistency, team importance, long-term performance and short-term performance. Then compare that to known transfer fees for similar performances and come up with an average.

Omglol 3,323 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by Omglol

Why not? The value of a player is exclusively based on his performances, not his transfer fee nor his salary - two numbers that Transfermarkt are purely guessing on anyway. The only way to somewhat accurately calculate transfer value is to base it on statistical consistency, team importance, long-term performance and short-term performance. Then compare that to known transfer fees for similar performances and come up with an average.

But what performance we talk off ? One game 5 goals before January and that striker is worth 100 mil ? Was Michu worth 35-40 mil ? Ye Mahrez look great, his contribution is unreal but is he worth 50 mil ? Transfermarkt for sure messed up lot of prices, and transfer fees, just saying i dont find the safe approach bad. In this age of crazy people with money, no one can calculate transfer values correct. Well even your method will need data of some sort (ExpG/xG) and 19 games is few. The results will lie or should i say wont be anything more then speculation.

Ix Techau Evil Mastermind 14,276 pts
Posted almost 5 years ago by Ix Techau

But what performance we talk off ? One game 5 goals before January and that striker is worth 100 mil ? Was Michu worth 35-40 mil ? Ye Mahrez look great, his contribution is unreal but is he worth 50 mil ?

That's why I said statistical consistency plus long-term performance. £8.1m is an insane evaluation for Mahrez that doesn't line up with reality. Leicester would not sell Mahrez for anything south of £20m, so why does Transfermarkt even have the values when they're 100% fiction, based on nothing but speculation about wages and fees.

Well even your method will need data of some sort (ExpG/xG) and 19 games is few. The results will lie or should i say wont be anything more then speculation.

Well yeah because it's just a prediction made on solid math. Doesn't mean it will always line up with reality. But the xG method has been proven to be fairly accurate, and does actually line up with reality overall. It's scientific, which is vastly different from Transfermarkt's evaluation calculation. All they do is take the transfer fee and run it through a few metrics like assumed wages and assumed contact length.

Transfermarkt doesn't have access to performance data, that's why they are unable to provide more accurate guesses. If I was given a contract to put together a transfer value list, I would use several performance metrics:

  • Calculate the player's importance to the team (chances created, games won, killer goals, avg rating, etc)
  • Do this for all players and assign a score based on that
  • Calculate statistical consistency: too many highs and lows lowers this score
  • Calculate player form
  • Run everything through an algorithm that calculates a final score, including things like contract length, and perhaps even odds of player leaving

...in other words, I wouldn't even look at the transfer fee. It's completely irrelevant.

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