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Ix Techau Evil Mastermind 14,241 pts

2016-2017 Arsenal Report Prediction League

Posted by Ix Techau over 1 year ago · 48 replies

Before every game you can now predict the outcome (win/draw/loss) and climb the leaderboards over the season and win a prize at the end! Anyone can join Arsenal Report in 30 seconds and start predicting. Prizes haven't been determined yet, but we'll have stuff for the top three predictors.

Rules:

  1. To avoid people just making one accurate prediction and then stop (staying on 100% until the end), we will look at your attendance throughout the season (your predictions / number of matches played) and filter out people below a certain attendance. However, this is calculated based on when you registered, so new users can join mid-season and still be in the running. Attendance minimum will likely be around 60-70%.

  2. To avoid people just joining before the last game of the season, we require the predictors to have made a minimum number of predictions throughout the season. Minimum will likely be around 6-10 predictions.

  3. Don't be an arsehole. It's very easy for us to spot exploits.

That's it, start predicting! You can always find the next upcoming game on the home page.

48 Comments

medintern 196 pts
Posted over 1 year ago by medintern

Strange. I have predicted on each of the prior games (been wrong both times), but am not listed. Am I doing something incorrect on it?

Folzarchi 111 pts
Posted over 1 year ago by Folzarchi

I've done this before. Send me his address. I have 99% success rate. My only target that got away was Osama. The Americans beat me to it.

saimpot 163 pts
Posted about 1 year ago by saimpot

Great change. Looks much better at the moment. :)

Darl Jenkinson, I'm coming for you!

Little niggle
Little bit niggle
DJ 115 pts
Posted about 1 year ago by DJ

Darl Jenkinson, I'm coming for you!

Maybe I should change my name. If I do, can I still make a prediction against West Ham?

And WTF does saimpot stand for?

saimpot 163 pts
Posted about 1 year ago by saimpot

Shit, I forgot to vote.

And WTF does saimpot stand for?

Well, it's a childhood nickname that kinda stuck.

saimpot 163 pts
Posted about 1 year ago by saimpot

Btw, I think you have to also include another check in your algorithm.

  • Person A votes 4 times and gets 4/4 correct, therefore having 100% accuracy
  • Person B votes 38 times and gets 30/38 corret, therefore having 78.9% accuracy

Person A ranks higher, which I think is unfair. I think it would be more fair to count the rows in the database which collect the match events (5 rows currently) and either include the people who have placed predictions for 70% or more of the rows (rounded up or down, your choice) OR give more gravity to the votes of the people who have more participation.

Banter
Proper banter
Ix Techau Evil Mastermind 14,241 pts
Posted about 1 year ago by Ix Techau

Btw, I think you have to also include another check in your algorithm. Person A ranks higher, which I think is unfair. I think it would be more fair to count the rows in the database which collect the match events (5 rows currently) and either include the people who have placed predictions for 70% or more of the rows (rounded up or down, your choice) OR give more gravity to the votes of the people who have more participation.

So that already happens, but there hasn't been enough matches for it to reflect on the leaderboard yet. You're going to need a certain attendance ratio, and I'm going to set the minimum required predictions to at least ten over the season.

I know it's harder to predict 31 correct games out of 45 (68.8%) than it is to predict seven correct games out of ten (70%)...but the only other way to do it is to lock out people from joining mid-season which is a bit boring - maybe you only learn about the prediction league in December and now you have to wait until August to play.

This is a constant problem in all football-related games really...how do you allow people to join halfway through a season and still let them have a chance to compete.

Maybe the answer is to divide the leaderboard into four leagues:

  • Amateur (10+ games)
  • Pro (20+ games)
  • Expert (30+ games)
  • Legend (40+ games)

That way you have people competing against others in a similar tier.

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